China Life(02628) 交银国际·2025-04-30 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Life Insurance (2628 HK) with a target price of HKD 19.00, indicating a potential upside of 35.9% from the current closing price of HKD 13.98 [1][2][10]. Core Insights - The company's profit and net asset growth outperformed peers, primarily due to effective asset-liability management and strategic interest rate choices [6][12]. - The growth in premium income is mainly driven by renewal premiums, with a notable increase in the proportion of floating income products [6][12]. - The new business value growth is lower than peers, reflecting a strategic shift towards long-term bonds and a modest expansion of short-payment products [6][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 405,040 million in 2023 to RMB 561,192 million by 2027, with a peak growth rate of 30.5% in 2024 [5][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 51,184 million in 2023 to RMB 111,687 million by 2027, with a significant jump of 108.9% in 2024 [5][12]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.81 in 2023 to RMB 3.95 by 2027, with a notable decline of 23.2% in 2023 followed by recovery in subsequent years [5][12]. - Investment Returns: - The annualized net and total investment returns for Q1 2025 are projected at 2.60% and 2.75%, respectively, reflecting a decline compared to previous periods [6][12]. Business Segment Insights - Insurance Services: - Insurance service income is expected to stabilize around RMB 212,324 million in 2025, with a slight growth trajectory thereafter [12]. - Investment Income: - Investment income is projected to reach RMB 300,609 million in 2025, showing a decrease from previous years due to rising bond yields [12]. - New Business Value: - New business value is anticipated to decline to RMB 30,564 million in 2025, reflecting a decrease in growth rates compared to previous years [8][12]. Market Position - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 909.65 billion and has shown resilience in maintaining a competitive edge in the insurance sector [4][12].