Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [2][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant turnaround in Q1 2025, with revenue of 4.08 billion RMB, surpassing expectations of a loss, and achieving a profit of 106 million RMB compared to a loss of 289 million RMB in Q4 2024 [6][7]. - The average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass increased by 5.5% quarter-on-quarter, contributing to improved gross and net profit margins, which rose by 8.8 and 9.6 percentage points to 11.7% and 2.6%, respectively [6]. - The report anticipates a substantial increase in profitability in Q2 2025, despite adjusting profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 15%, 10%, and 9% due to increased production from second and third-tier companies and the impact of tariffs on Vietnamese production [6][12]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 21,524 million RMB in 2023, 18,683 million RMB in 2024, and 18,433 million RMB in 2025E, with a projected growth of 39.2% in 2023 followed by a decline of 13.2% in 2024 [5][12]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from 2,760 million RMB in 2023 to 893 million RMB in 2025E, reflecting a significant drop of 63.4% in 2024 [5][12]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to decline from 21.8% in 2023 to 13.6% in 2025E, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [12][8]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a strong rebound in photovoltaic glass prices, which have recently started to decline as inventory levels increase following a surge in demand due to new policies [6][8]. - The company’s production capacity in Vietnam is affected by "reciprocal tariffs," but the overall impact is deemed limited due to the ability to redirect exports to other countries [6][12]. - The anticipated increase in supply from June 2025 is expected to put pressure on glass prices, as the company has not yet confirmed the production timeline for its new capacity of 7,200 tons [6][12].
福莱特玻璃：1季度大幅扭亏超预期；维持买入-20250430