PMI回到去年8月

Group 1: PMI Overview - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, below the expected 49.8% and previous value of 50.5%[1] - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.4%, down from 50.8%[1] - The April PMI levels are comparable to those from August 2024, indicating a significant external impact on the economy[1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Insights - New orders and production indices dropped by 2.6 and 2.8 percentage points, contributing to a 0.8 and 0.7 percentage point decline in manufacturing PMI, respectively[2] - New export orders fell by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, marking the lowest level since early 2023[2] - The strategic emerging industries' EPMI decreased by 10.2 percentage points to 49.4%, while high-tech manufacturing PMI remained above the threshold at 51.5%[2] Group 3: Construction and Services Sector Analysis - The construction sector's business activity index fell by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, with new orders and employment indices dropping to 39.6% and 37.8%, respectively[3] - The service sector's PMI slightly decreased to 50.1%, with new orders down by 1.2 percentage points to 45.9%[4] - Both construction and service sectors are experiencing price declines, with construction prices down 0.3 percentage points to 47.2% and service prices down 0.1 percentage points to 46.5%[4] Group 4: Economic Projections - The comprehensive PMI for April is at 50.2%, indicating a slowdown compared to the averages of 51.27% in Q4 2024 and 50.87% in Q1 2025[5] - The GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 is expected to slow down from 5.4% in Q1 2025, but a significant downturn is not anticipated[5] - The report suggests that upcoming counter-cyclical policy adjustments, particularly in monetary and fiscal areas, may influence market conditions positively[7]