Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 12.768 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, with total revenue of 42.157 billion yuan, up 3.6% year-on-year [6]. - The passenger revenue growth in 2024 faced pressure due to the business travel demand and competition from airlines, resulting in a 1.57% decline in passenger revenue to 15.829 billion yuan [6]. - The cross-line trains remain a core profit driver, with network service revenue growing by 7.15% to 25.955 billion yuan in 2024, and cross-line train operation mileage increasing by 11.4% [6]. - Cost optimization is expected, with a projected improvement in gross margin due to reductions in depreciation, energy, and train usage costs [6]. - The railway market reform is anticipated to enhance the asset value of railway passenger transport, driven by price optimization policies [6]. - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 14.55 billion yuan and 15.613 billion yuan respectively, while a new forecast for 2027 is set at 17.737 billion yuan [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 45.124 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.0% [2]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 14.55 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.0% year-on-year increase [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.30 yuan, with a gross margin of 48.7% [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is projected at 6.8% [2].
京沪高铁（601816）：跨线车仍是24年主要利润增量，短期增速放缓不改中长期成长底色