集运日报：受SCFIS指数影响，盘面继续承压，关注今日欧美一季度宏观数据，风险偏好者可等待反弹机会，节日快乐-20250430

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The core logic for this year lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US may change its tariff policies towards countries like Canada, Mexico, and Europe. With the approaching pricing window for long - term contracts on US routes, retaliatory tariffs are added to the negotiation means, which adds a major disturbing factor to the future shipping trend. Shipowners intend to support prices, but price wars among alliances are inevitable. Attention should be paid to the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [3]. - The spot freight rate maintains a downward trend. Under the game between long and short positions, the short - selling sentiment slightly prevails, and the market fluctuates at a low level. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and the spot freight rate [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Rate Index - On April 28, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI, composite index) was 908.48 points, down 1.39% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS, European route) was 1429.39 points, down 5.2% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 796.14 points, down 5.19% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1368.41 points, down 10.1% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1235.01 points, up 1.53% from the previous period [1]. - On April 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1347.84 points, down 22.74 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI, composite index) was 1122.40 points, up 1.0% from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1260 USD/TEU, down 4.26% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1499.50 points, up 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route price was 2141 USD/FEU, up 1.81% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 823.14 points, up 1.4% from the previous period [1]. PMI and Investor Confidence Index - The eurozone's April manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the service PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The eurozone's April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [1]. - The US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2), the service PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4), and the composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5) [2]. Market Conditions - On April 29, the main contract 2506 closed at 1275.6, with a decline of 7.83%, a trading volume of 54,900 lots, and an open interest of 37,600 lots, a decrease of 2001 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on the medium - and long - term [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of tariff fermentation, the reverse arbitrage structure can be concerned. The window period is short and the fluctuation is large [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended that risk - preferring investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [4]. Policy Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is adjusted to 19% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is adjusted to 29% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 100 lots [4]. Other Information - On April 28, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced sanctions on three ships and their owners supporting the Houthi armed forces in Yemen [5]. - In the first quarter, the total ocean production value was 2.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate [5].