需求接近顶部，铁矿石存在补跌可能

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint In the context of the trade war, although the time and manner of the implementation of production - restriction policies are uncertain, it is highly likely that such policies will be introduced, leading to a long - term expectation of decreased iron ore demand. Even if the policies are not implemented in the short term, steel mill profits will be squeezed first, followed by forced production cuts, which will also reduce iron ore demand. In terms of supply, the second quarter is expected to see an increase in iron ore supply, and port inventories are likely to bottom out and rise. Therefore, iron ore prices will face significant downward pressure in the later period [2][15]. 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Overview In early April, iron ore prices dropped significantly due to systemic risks. After mid - April, prices returned to the fundamental logic of high hot metal production, and decreasing supply and inventory, outperforming steel prices. In late April, prices weakened again due to rumors of crude steel production cuts. It is expected that in the next 1 - 2 months, iron ore prices may experience a catch - up decline, with spot prices possibly falling to $85 - 90 per ton [7]. Iron Water High Production May Not Be Sustainable In April, the daily hot metal production reached a high of 2.4453 million tons. Given the weak domestic steel demand and external trade conflicts, it is highly likely that production - restriction policies will be introduced, though the time and manner of implementation are uncertain. In May, steel demand is likely to weaken. If production - restriction policies are not implemented within 1 - 2 months, steel supply will remain high, squeezing steel mill profits and forcing production cuts. In any case, daily hot metal production is unlikely to stay above 2.4 million tons for long [7][8]. Second - Quarter Supply Has an Uptrend Expectation Affected by factors such as Australian cyclones and Brazilian railway transportation disruptions, the production and sales of iron ore in the first quarter were at a low level. The output of the four major mines in the first quarter was 246 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%, and sales were 249 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. Historically, the second quarter is the peak season for iron ore shipments. Based on the average of the past four years, the global iron ore shipments in the second quarter are expected to increase by about 56 million tons compared to the first quarter. The four major mines have not lowered their annual shipment targets, so there is an expectation of increased supply in the second quarter [10][11]. Iron Ore Inventory Inflection Point May Appear in May From late March to mid - April, the arrival volume of iron ore decreased, while hot metal production increased. Due to pre - holiday steel mill restocking, iron ore port inventories decreased for three consecutive weeks in April, with a cumulative decrease of 4.644 million tons. Currently, steel mill restocking has temporarily ended. Looking forward, supply is likely to continue to increase, and hot metal production is likely to decline. Therefore, after May, iron ore port inventories are likely to bottom out and rise. This is also supported by the ratio of iron ore port clearance volume to arrival volume [12]. Conclusion and Investment Advice The real - world fundamentals of iron ore were still strong in April. Looking ahead, the expectation of decreased iron ore demand will persist. Supply is expected to increase in the second quarter, and port inventories are likely to rise. Iron ore spot prices face pressure around $100 per ton and may fall to $85 - 90 per ton. Considering the discount factor, the iron ore 09 contract faces pressure around 720 - 730 [15].