贵金属日评：美国部分经济数据表现低于预期，空仓过节避劳动节假期潜在风险-20250430

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View Global central banks' expected interest rate cuts and fiscal easing, along with continuous gold purchases by central banks and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, may lead to a situation where precious metal prices are more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors focus on buying on dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Economic Data: In the US, March JOLTS job openings hit a six - month low, far worse than expected; the April Conference Board consumer confidence index dropped to 86, the lowest since May 2020; the March goods trade deficit set a record high, far exceeding expectations [1]. - US Treasury Bonds: The narrative of "mid - year concentrated maturity of US Treasury bonds" is exaggerated. There is some concentrated maturity pressure in the short - term debt, but T - Bills demand remains stable. The maturity distribution of medium - and long - term Treasury bonds is relatively stable [1]. - Central Bank Policies: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, and may cut rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut rates in May and 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan may raise rates around July [1]. Silver - US Fiscal Policies: The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, with a future ten - year tax cut of $5.3 trillion, a debt ceiling increase of $50 billion, and government spending cuts of $40 billion. The US Treasury's borrowing in the second quarter was $514 billion, exceeding expectations by three times, but the borrowing demand is lower than expected after excluding the debt - ceiling impact. The CBO predicts the Treasury funds may run out between August and October, which may slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The expected Fed rate cuts are added to June/July/September/December [1]. Market Data - Gold: On April 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold spot closing price was 781.57 yuan/gram, up 3.35 yuan from the previous day and down 4.56 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume of Shanghai gold T + D decreased by 9,640 compared to the previous day and 53,070 compared to the previous week. The COMEX gold futures active - contract closing price was $3327.60, down $107.50 from April 21. The trading volume decreased by 48,229 compared to the previous day and 68,160 compared to the previous week [1]. - Silver: On April 29, 2025, the Shanghai silver spot closing price was 8197 yuan/ten - gram, up 24 yuan from the previous day and 6 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume of Shanghai silver T + D decreased by 122,578 compared to the previous day and 312,926 compared to the previous week. The COMEX silver futures active - contract closing price was $33.22, up $0.14 from the previous day and $0.58 from the previous week [1]. - Other Commodities and Financial Indicators: INE crude oil was 483.60 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was $63.01/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was $60.14/barrel. The Shanghai copper futures price was 77,600 yuan/ton, and the LME copper spot price was $9,378/ton. The Shanghai Bank - to - Bank overnight lending rate SHIBOR was 1.54%, and the US 10 - year Treasury bond nominal yield was 4.19% [1]. - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,286.6548, the S&P 500 was 5,560.8300, the UK FTSE 100 was 8,463.4600, the French CAC40 was 7,555.8700, the German DAX was 21,205.8600, the Nikkei 225 was 35,839.9900, and the South Korean Composite Index was 2,565.4200 [1].