生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250430

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and there may still be a possibility of new lows in the long - term [4]. - From sow and piglet data, hog supplies in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 will be abundant, so there is no basis for a significant increase in hog prices [4]. - Demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for hog prices, making it difficult to drive a significant price increase [4]. - The current increasing hog slaughter weight indicates that the farming sector is still accumulating inventory, which is negative for future prices. If there is a concentrated weight reduction later, hog prices may hit new lows [4]. - Although there may be new lows in the long - term for spot prices, due to high uncertainty and weak short - term weight reduction drivers, and the futures price being in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On April 29, the number of registered hog warehouse receipts was 705 lots [2]. - The LH2505 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery games, while far - month contracts are weakly operating due to the expected increase in future hog supplies [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 421 lots today, with a position of about 72,900 lots. The highest price was 14,130 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,910 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,930 yuan/ton [2]. - The national average hog slaughter price on April 29 was 14.72 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg (- 0.07%) from the previous day. The prices in Henan and Sichuan were 14.74 yuan/kg (down 0.08 yuan/kg, - 0.54%) and 14.35 yuan/kg (unchanged) respectively [6]. - Among futures contracts, the prices of 01, 03, 07, 09, and 11 contracts decreased, while the 05 contract increased. The price changes were - 100 yuan/ton (- 0.72%), - 75 yuan/ton (- 0.57%), - 35 yuan/ton (- 0.26%), - 200 yuan/ton (- 1.42%), - 105 yuan/ton (- 0.77%), and + 25 yuan/ton (+ 0.18%) respectively [6]. - The main basis in Henan increased by 120 yuan/ton (17.39%) to 810 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, hog supplies from March to December are expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, hog slaughter volumes will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, there is still room for the fat - standard price difference to decline [3]. - Short - side logic: The farming sector has not yet reduced hog weights, which is negative for future prices; future hog supplies are expected to continue to increase; the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons, so demand support for hog prices is limited [3]. - Long - side logic: Slaughterhouses' inventory replenishment is not over, which can support hog prices; the firm spot price indicates that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side believes; although future hog supplies will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak hog consumption season; rising prices of corn and soybean meal may increase hog farming costs [3]. Strategy Suggestions - The short - term hog price may fluctuate, and there may be new lows in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4].