Soochow Securities·2025-04-30 12:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the market trading activity is vibrant, with the quarterly performance reaching a historical high. The significant growth in performance is attributed to improved investor sentiment driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and other innovations, leading to increased participation from mainland investors in offshore markets [7][8] - The report maintains previous earnings forecasts, expecting shareholder profits for 2025-2026 to be HKD 149.34 billion and HKD 156.73 billion, with growth rates of 14% and 5% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 28.9x for 2025 [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue and other income of HKD 69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 41 billion, up 37% year-on-year. The return on equity (ROE) for Q1 2025 was 7.71%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [7][8] - The cash market segment generated revenue of HKD 33 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a 75% year-on-year increase, accounting for 48% of total revenue. The average daily trading volume in the cash market surged by 153% to HKD 225 billion [7][8] Market Activity - The report notes that the trading volume reached multiple single-day highs, with the Northbound and Southbound trading under the Stock Connect averaging daily trading volumes of HKD 191.1 billion and HKD 109.9 billion, representing increases of 44% and 255% respectively [7][8] - The derivatives market continued its upward trend, with revenue from equity securities and financial derivatives reaching HKD 17 billion, a 9% year-on-year increase, driven by increased trading of structured products and record trading volumes in the derivatives market [7][8] Future Projections - The report projects that the average daily trading volume for the Stock Exchange will increase significantly, with estimates of HKD 175 billion for 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 33% [7][8] - The number of new listings on the main board is expected to remain stable, with projections of 68 new companies listed annually from 2024 to 2027 [7][8]