减产力度不足，寻底或将继续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For silicon manganese, the industry fundamentals have not improved significantly, cost - end support is insufficient, and high inventory suppresses price increases. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5600, 6000] [5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is gradually alleviating, the industry's production reduction progress is accelerating, but the inventory level is still relatively high. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5400, 5850] [46] 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Silicon Manganese 3.1.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, production and operating rates declined significantly. It is expected that the total silicon manganese output in April will be around 810,000 tons. Although the production decline in each production area has slowed down compared with the previous period, the daily average output in Inner Mongolia is still at a relatively high level in the same period, and the operating rate in Yunnan is also at a high level in the same period [4][18] - Demand: In April, the substantial increase in hot metal production provided rigid support for the demand for silicon manganese. However, in steel tenders, the procurement prices of mainstream steel mills decreased, and the overall price - pressing sentiment was strong. Recently, news of production cuts has disturbed the market [4] 3.1.2 Manganese Ore Overview - Price: Manganese ore prices have not stopped falling, and the decline of oxide ore is obvious. Although the inquiry enthusiasm at ports has increased recently, the overall purchasing mentality is still cautious [4] - Inventory: Port inventory has continued to rise but is still at a historically low level. The arrival volume in April increased significantly, and the floating volume at sea surged. It is expected that large ships will arrive at ports in mid - to - late May, and the inventory may return to the normal range [4] 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - The entire industry is still in a loss state, and there are still expectations for production cuts. Special attention should be paid to the production reduction progress in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. Coke's second - round price increase was blocked, and the coke price is expected to be weak. The electricity prices in the north and south production areas have decreased to varying degrees, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [4] 3.1.4 Market Review - In April, the silicon manganese futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon manganese 509 contract was 5804 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 6.66% compared with the beginning of the month; the price range of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5680 - 5900 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 220 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, the production and operating rates decreased significantly. It is expected that the national output in April will be 430,000 - 440,000 tons. Since the end of March, news of factory production cuts and shutdowns has been continuously reported, and production area shutdowns and overhauls have gradually increased since mid - April [45] - Demand: With the repair of steel mill profits, blast furnaces have been actively restarted, and hot metal production has increased more than expected. In April, steel tenders progressed slowly, and most steel mills' tender prices decreased to varying degrees compared with the previous round. Non - steel demand remained stable, and downstream pre - holiday restocking was mainly based on demand - based procurement. The cumulative silicon iron export volume from January to March decreased significantly year - on - year [45] 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market has been stable recently. The price of lump coal in the raw material end has declined, weakening the cost support for semi - coke. The overall operating rate of semi - coke enterprises is low, and they have entered the regular maintenance season, with the overall supply continuing to shrink. The price of small materials in Shaanxi has not changed significantly this month. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia was reduced by 0.015 yuan in mid - April, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [45] 3.2.3 Market Review - In April, the silicon iron futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon iron 506 contract was 5648 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron 72 in Inner Mongolia was in the price range of 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 150 yuan/ton [49]