油脂月报（2025年4月）：供应拐点出现，关税扰动减弱-20250430

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the domestic oil market was volatile. At the beginning of the month, oils tumbled due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war. Then, the market panic eased, and the tightening short - term supply supported the prices. However, with the arrival of imported soybeans and the increase in the oil mill operating rate, the prices fell again at the end of the month. The global oilseed supply is expected to remain loose, while the global vegetable oil market shows a supply - tightening expectation [3][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Domestic Futures: In April, domestic soybean oil futures fell nearly 2%, palm oil futures fell nearly 4%, and rapeseed oil futures fluctuated slightly. CBOT soybean futures rose slightly, and Malaysian palm oil futures fell nearly 10% [3]. - Registration of Warehouse Receipts: The number of soybean oil warehouse receipts decreased by 553 to 4005, palm oil warehouse receipts remained at 0, and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 484 to 1357 [10]. - Basis of Three Major Oils: The basis of soybean oil increased by 186 to 440, palm oil increased by 58 to 600, and rapeseed oil increased by 99 to 128 [14]. - CFTC Managed Fund Net Positions: As of the week of April 22, the net long positions of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil managed funds increased by 87066 and 99060 respectively compared with the same period last month [17]. - Soybean Premiums at Major Ports: As of April 30, 2025, the premium of South American port soybeans decreased by 30 cents/bushel to 145 cents/bushel, and that of the Gulf of Mexico decreased by 10 cents/bushel to 198 cents/bushel [18]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Global Oilseed and Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand - Global Oilseeds: In the 2024/25 season, global oilseed production was lowered, trade volume and crushing volume were raised, and ending stocks were increased. The overall supply of oilseeds is expected to remain loose [22]. - Global Vegetable Oils: In the 2024/25 season, global vegetable oil production, trade volume, and consumption are all expected to decline, and ending stocks are reduced, showing a supply - tightening expectation [22]. - Global Three - Major Oils Consumption: In 2024/25, the biodiesel consumption of the global three - major oils was 53686 thousand tons, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 4.25%. The edible consumption was 124759 thousand tons, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 4.31% [25]. 3.2.2 Soybean Supply and Demand - Global Soybeans: In 2024/25, global soybean production is expected to be slightly lowered, beginning stocks are significantly raised, and ending stocks are increased by 1.06 million tons to 122.5 million tons. The global soybean crushing volume increased by 2 million tons to 354.8 million tons [28]. - US Soybeans: As of the 33rd week of the 2024/25 season, the cumulative US soybean exports increased by 12.2% year - on - year, but exports to China decreased by 5.83% year - on - year. In March 2025, US soybean crushing volume decreased by 4.47% year - on - year, and the December soybean oil inventory decreased by 19.07% year - on - year. As of April 28, 2025, the US soybean sowing rate was 18% [32][35][39][42]. - Brazilian Soybeans: In March 2025, Brazilian soybean exports were 15.7237 million tons, and the cumulative exports from January to March increased by 3.97% year - on - year. The estimated exports in April were 14.31 million tons [45]. 3.2.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - Global Rapeseed: In 2024/25, the global rapeseed production is expected to be 85.24 million tons, 451 thousand tons lower than the previous forecast, mainly due to the reduction in Canadian production. The ending stocks are expected to be 9.018 million tons, 60 thousand tons lower than the previous forecast [48]. - Canadian Rapeseed: As of the 37th week of the 2024/25 crushing season, the cumulative Canadian rapeseed exports increased by 72% year - on - year, and the commercial inventory decreased by 13.12% year - on - year. As of March 2025, the Canadian rapeseed crushing volume increased by 6.57% year - on - year, and the cumulative exports from January to March increased by 4.36% year - on - year [53][55]. 3.2.4 Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Global Palm Oil: In 2024/25, global palm oil production is expected to be 78.229 million tons, 1.3 million tons lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 3%. Consumption is expected to be 76.953 million tons, 1.215 million tons lower than the previous month's forecast, with a year - on - year growth of 3.17%. Ending stocks are expected to be 14.786 million tons, 52 thousand tons lower than the previous month's forecast [58][59]. - Malaysian Palm Oil: In March 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 0.38% year - on - year, exports decreased by 24.34% year - on - year, and inventory decreased by 8.76% year - on - year [67]. - Indonesian Palm Oil: In January 2025, Indonesian palm oil production, exports, and inventory were all lower than the same period last year [71]. 3.2.5 Other Countries' Oil - Related Data - India: In March 2025, Indian vegetable oil imports decreased by 15.55% year - on - year, and inventory decreased by 28.03% year - on - year [73]. - China: In March 2025, China's soybean imports decreased by 36.77% year - on - year, rapeseed imports decreased by 34.46% year - on - year, rapeseed oil imports increased by 76.88% year - on - year, and palm oil imports increased by 3% year - on - year. As of the 17th week of 2025, the inventory and operating rate of domestic soybean, rapeseed, and palm oil showed different changes [77][82][85][88][93][95][97].