棉花：美棉连跌三天呈疲态，郑棉再下12800

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) main contract 2509 closed at 12,750 yuan/ton, down 0.7% from the previous trading day, breaking below 12,800 yuan/ton again. The market is cautious about the trade war, new cotton sowing, and downstream consumption. In the short - term, Zhengmian will maintain a weak oscillation. The ICE cotton futures fell due to the rebound of the US dollar index and the decline of crude oil prices, with commercial buying support at 64 cents/pound. Zhengmian is expected to continue the oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies. The current Zhengmian 2509 contract has fallen below the planting cost support line, but there is an adjustment window for the state - reserve cotton rotation policy. Technically, there is support at 12,500 yuan/ton and short - term pressure at 13,000 yuan/ton. Investors are advised to pay attention to the repair opportunity of cotton yarn processing fees [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The closing price of Zhengmian main 2509 contract decreased by 0.7% to 12,750 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. It broke below 12,800 yuan/ton again, and 13,000 yuan/ton became a pressure level in the short - term. The market is cautious about trade war, new cotton sowing, and downstream consumption. The ICE cotton futures fell 1.48% to 66.56 cents/pound overnight, affected by the rebound of the US dollar index and the decline of crude oil prices. There is commercial buying support at 64 cents/pound for the ICE main contract [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On April 30, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 12,355 (-41) sheets, including 11,040 (+202) registered warehouse receipts and 1,315 (-243) valid forecasts [3]. - As of April 28, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 48,600 tons, a decrease of 4.22% from the previous week. Among them, bonded cotton was 44,500 tons, down 3.92%, and non - bonded cotton was 4,100 tons, down 7.40% [5]. - In mid - to late April, the meteorological conditions in Xinjiang were generally favorable for cotton spring sowing. As of April 20, the sowing progress in Xinjiang was 93.9%. It is expected that there will be rainfall and gusts in some areas of northern Xinjiang at the end of April [5]. - As of April 15, the national cotton direct - seeding progress was 75%, 20.8 percentage points faster than the same period last year, and the seedling - transplanting progress was 45.5%, 23.4 percentage points slower than the same period last year. The proportion of farmers using direct - seeding was 74.9%, and that of using seedling - transplanting was 25.1% [6]. - As of the week ending April 27, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 15%, compared with 11% last week, 14% last year, and a five - year average of 14% [6]. 3.3 Data Charts The report provides charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit, cotton yarn import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions, with data sources from Wind and Jinshi Futures Research Institute [8][11][12]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US may withdraw from the mediation process between Russia and Ukraine if there is no progress. Trump's support rate for handling the US economy has dropped to 36%. Domestically, the spring sowing in Xinjiang's main cotton - producing areas has been completed, with a sowing progress of 98.7%. As of May 15, the cotton field emergence rate in Xinjiang was 32.4%, 4.2 percentage points faster than the five - year average. However, if there is continuous precipitation in early June in northern Xinjiang, 6 - 8% of cotton fields may need replanting [16]. - The Zhengmian 2509 contract has fallen below the planting cost support line, and there is an adjustment window for the state - reserve cotton rotation policy, with a theoretical storage space of about 300,000 - 500,000 tons. Technically, there is support at 12,500 yuan/ton and short - term pressure at 13,000 yuan/ton. Investors are advised to pay attention to the repair opportunity of cotton yarn processing fees, which are currently at the 5% historical quantile [16].