原油月报：关税政策扰动叠加OPEC扩产，油价中枢下移-20250430

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In April, international oil prices tumbled significantly under the impact of tariff disturbances and OPEC+'s official production increase, with the oil price center shifting downwards. Tariff policies have become the main uncertainty factor in the macro - economy, and the IMF recently downgraded the global GDP growth rate. Against this background, the incremental demand for crude oil is insufficient. OPEC+ officially started increasing production in April, and some member countries will implement compensatory production cuts, but the implementation is difficult. There is no sign of a driver to reverse the crude oil trend, and the oil price will continue to be weak. It is estimated that the WTI will fluctuate between $55 - 65 per barrel, and the trading strategy suggests short - selling on rallies. The focus ranges are WTI [55, 65] for the outer market and SC [420, 500] for the inner market [8][95]. Group 3: Summaries by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The international crude oil futures price has fluctuated due to various factors such as sanctions, supply shortages, weather, and OPEC+ policies from December 2024 to April 2025 [6]. 2. Macroeconomics - The People's Bank of China will consider timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity. The IMF downgraded the 2025 global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8% and predicted 3% for 2026. US tariff measures will cause a short - term slowdown in the global economy. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI is on the rise, while the US's is falling. China's domestic economy is relatively optimistic, with consumption driving growth, and the LPR remains stable [8][16][21]. 3. Supply and Inventory - Supply: In March 2025, OPEC's crude oil production decreased by 7.8 barrels per day to 2678 barrels per day. The US's crude oil production remained stable at 1346 barrels per day as of April 18, and the number of rigs increased by 1. Russia's crude oil production is expected to be stable in Q2 - Q3 2025 and then increase [33][42][46]. - Demand: EIA, OPEC, and IEA estimated the 2025 global crude oil demand to be 10364, 10505, and 10360 barrels per day respectively. China's March crude oil imports increased year - on - year, while the US and European refineries' crude oil processing volumes decreased year - on - year. India's crude oil demand is rising [50][51][53]. - Inventory: As of April 18, the US's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 20 barrels to 44310 barrels, and the strategic reserve increased by 50 barrels to 39748 barrels. The OECD's total inventory decreased. European crude oil inventory is at a low level, and the US's refined oil inventory is being depleted [9][62][71]. 4. Spreads and Positions - Spreads: The WTI forward curve is in a Back structure, and the inter - month spread is decreasing. As of April 29, the SC - WTI spread was $5.71 per barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread was $1.23 per barrel. The refined oil cracking spread remained stable [78][82][85]. - Positions: As of April 22, the net long positions of WTI and Brent funds increased. As of April 29, the inner - market SC warehouse receipt volume increased but was at a low level, and the virtual - to - real ratio was high [88][91].