Report Title - Iron Ore Monthly Report: Supply-demand structure weakens, ore prices fluctuate weakly [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In May, the global iron ore supply and demand are both strong, and the static supply and demand are relatively loose. Prices will fluctuate weakly [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - In April, the spot and futures prices fluctuated weakly. As of April 29, the futures price of the main contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton month-on-month [4] Supply Side - The shipments of the four major mines will increase in May, with an estimated month-on-month increase of 625000 tons [5][29][36] - Non-mainstream mines are estimated to ship 40.3 million tons in May, an increase of about 30000 tons [5][32][36] - Domestic mine production is expected to reach 21 million tons in May, a month-on-month increase of 60000 tons [5][35][36] - The overall global supply in May will increase by about 7.15 million tons month-on-month [5][36] Demand Side - Domestically, according to the Steel Union's statistical caliber, the estimated national pig iron output in April was 72.26 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. In May, the blast furnace hot metal output is expected to be 74.4 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.14 million tons. The demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will increase by 3.5 million tons [5][15][21] - Overseas, the daily average pig iron output outside China is generally stable. It is estimated that the pig iron output in May will decrease by about 30000 tons month-on-month, and the demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will decrease by about 50000 tons [5][18][21] - Globally, the demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will increase by about 3 million tons in May [5][21] Steel Mill Conditions - At the end of April, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, a year-on-year increase of 4.60 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a year-on-year increase of 6.07 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a year-on-year increase of 6.93 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4435 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 810 tons [9] - In April, the profitability of long and short process steel mills remained stable, and the production enthusiasm was fair; short process steel mills remained in the red, and the production enthusiasm was not strong [12] Inventory - At the end of April, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 143 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 200 tons. It is expected to accumulate in May [37] - Steel mills replenish inventory on demand, and the inventory fluctuates within a narrow range [39]
矿石需结构转，价震荡偏弱运行
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-04-30 13:16