沥青月报：基本面边际改善，成本支撑减弱-20250430

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic asphalt market shows marginal improvements in supply and demand, but fundamental pressures remain. The supply continues to increase, with a 4% month - on - month increase in April production. The demand shows initial signs of recovery, with a 15.5% month - on - month increase in April asphalt shipments. The macro situation has short - term marginal improvements, but long - term uncertainties persist. The cost of asphalt is supported by the short - term crude oil market. Overall, the asphalt price is likely to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to focus on the BU2506 contract in the range of 3340 - 3550 yuan/ton and choose to short on rebounds [71]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In April, asphalt prices first declined and then rebounded, showing a significant overall decline. Affected by macro negatives and OPEC+ unexpected production increases during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the outer - market crude oil prices dropped sharply, causing asphalt to open at the daily limit down on the first trading day after the holiday and reach a new low for the year. In the middle and late April, as the macro - pessimistic sentiment eased and OPEC+ expanded compensatory production cuts, oil prices were supported, and asphalt prices rebounded and fluctuated widely [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Divergence in Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed is likely to continue to pause interest - rate cuts due to high economic uncertainties and inflation risks. After the release of the March CPI data, traders increased bets on a 100 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed by the end of the year. However, Fed Chairman Powell's "hawkish" speech reduced market expectations for interest - rate cuts. The market generally expects the Fed to start cutting rates in June and cut rates 3 - 4 times by the end of 2025, with a cumulative cut of 75 - 100 basis points. The difference in expectations between the market and the Fed may lead to increased volatility in risk assets [9][10]. 3.2.2 Tariff Pressures - In April, the Trump administration's tariff policies led to macro negatives and increased global economic uncertainties. The suspension of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 10 eased the pessimistic sentiment to some extent, but the uncertainty of tariff policies still impacts the market and investor confidence [11]. 3.2.3 OPEC+ Actions - In April, eight OPEC+ members announced a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in May. At the same time, an updated compensatory production - cut plan was announced, with an increase of 369,000 barrels per day in the cumulative production - cut scale. However, due to Kazakhstan's production policies and potential issues with production - cut implementation efficiency, the actual effect of the compensatory production cuts remains to be seen [15]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - As of April 25, the cumulative asphalt production in April was 1.752 million tons, a 4% month - on - month increase and a 5.8% year - on - year increase. The refinery operating rate has rebounded, and the supply is under pressure. As of April 23, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 30.7%, up 2 percentage points from the previous period, with significant increases in Shandong, Central, and North China regions [16][24]. 3.3.2 Demand - As of April 25, the asphalt shipments in April were 1.371 million tons, a 15.5% month - on - month increase. The demand is gradually recovering, but the growth rate is lower than the supply growth rate. In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative investment in domestic transportation fixed assets increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity has rebounded, which is expected to support asphalt demand [25][32][33]. 3.3.3 Import and Export - In March, domestic asphalt imports were 264,000 tons, a month - on - month increase but a year - on - year decrease. The average import price decreased. Exports were 62,800 tons, a month - on - month increase, and the average export price also decreased [42][45]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of April 25, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises decreased by 15,000 tons week - on - week, while the social inventory increased by 28,000 tons week - on - week to 4.211 million tons, with a growth rate of 2.01% [55][62]. 3.3.5 Price Spread - As of April 25, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 619.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 157.8 yuan/ton. The asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio rebounded to 55.76 as of April 28. There is a risk of further decline in processing dilution profit [69].