硅系：安泰科2025年有色金属报告会热点

Report Overview - The report is based on the content of the new energy metal theme report meeting held by Antaike on April 29, 2025, focusing on the silicon-based spot and futures markets [1] Group 1: Guangzhou Futures Exchange - Industrial Silicon Futures Market: The market is advancing steadily with daily average trading volume reaching 237,700 lots and daily average open interest at 222,000 lots. The proportion of legal entity clients has reached 66%. The correlation between futures and spot prices is 0.99. Over 20,000 industrial clients and 105 production enterprises are involved in hedging, and 14 listed companies have announced industrial silicon hedging. China's influence on global new energy prices has increased [2] - Polysilicon Futures Market: After its listing, it has been operating stably with daily average trading volume of 43,100 lots and daily average open interest of 46,300 lots. In April 2025, the proportion of legal entity clients' open interest increased from 35% at the initial stage to 59%. Leading enterprises such as Tongwei Co., Ltd., JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd., Hongyuan Green Energy Co., Ltd., and TBEA Co., Ltd. have announced polysilicon futures hedging business [2] - Polysilicon Futures Delivery Methods: There are three methods: exchange for physicals, one - time delivery, and rolling delivery. For the PS2506 contract, the exchange - for - physicals period is from the contract listing date to May 28, the rolling delivery period is from June 3 to June 13, and the one - time delivery period is three trading days after June 16 [3] - New Product Listing Plan: The exchange will accelerate the listing of new energy metal futures such as manganese, nickel, lithium hydroxide, and photovoltaic modules, and plan strategically for carbon emission rights, electricity, green certificates, etc., and explore derivatives of wind, solar, hydro, and gas meteorological indices [3] Group 2: Antaike - Q1 2025 Silicon Industry Characteristics: Prices are at a low level with industrial silicon down 12% and polysilicon basically flat. Supply has decreased significantly, with industrial silicon down 1.1% and polysilicon down 44.7%. Domestic demand has continued to decline, with industrial silicon demand down 16.8% year - on - year and polysilicon demand down 44.6% year - on - year. In terms of imports and exports, industrial silicon exports are down 7.9% year - on - year, and polysilicon exports are less than imports. The industry is in full - scale loss and has broken through the strong support of cash cost. Inventories remain high, with 950,000 tons of industrial silicon and 400,000 tons of polysilicon [4] - 2025 Silicon Energy Industry Concerns: The impact of industrial policies on the market, the commissioning of new projects in each link, the impact of the China - US tariff war on the industry, the impact of the futures market on the industry, and the supply - demand balance and inventory changes in each link [4] - Silicon Industry Chain Situation: Currently, supply in each link is sufficient, but demand growth is lower than expected. High inventories, falling prices, and losses in each link are present. The market supply - demand expectation is deteriorating, and the industry is looking forward to a turnaround [6] - Impact of Industrial Policies on the PV Market: Currently, demand has exploded, production capacity is tight, component prices have skyrocketed, and the entire industrial chain has seen price increases. In the short - term, demand will decrease, prices will fall, inventories will rise, leading to industry consolidation and highlighting the advantages of leading enterprises [6] - Impact of US "Reciprocal Tariff" Policy on PV Industry: In the short - term, it significantly impacts the PV industry. It suppresses US domestic PV installation demand, hits the Southeast Asian PV supply chain led by China, and North Africa and the Middle East will become new investment areas for PV exports to the US. In the long - term, it forces the industry to transform, and Chinese enterprises need to focus on optimizing overseas production capacity, independent technological innovation, and market diversification [6] - China's Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Outlook: Antaike expects that in 2025, the total output of primary silicon and recycled silicon - supplemented industrial silicon may reach 4.6 million tons. The output of organic silicon will be about 2.5 million tons, and polysilicon output will be about 1.32 million tons. The total demand for industrial silicon will be about 3.85 million tons, including about 900,000 tons for aluminum alloy, about 1.25 million tons for organic silicon, about 1.6 million tons for polysilicon, and about 100,000 tons for other materials. Industrial silicon exports will be about 700,000 tons. The oversupply situation will continue [7]