中国人身险行业展望，2025年4月

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the life insurance industry, indicating that the overall credit quality will not undergo significant changes in the next 12-18 months [5][48]. Core Insights - The life insurance industry is expected to see premium growth in 2024, driven by renewal business despite challenges in new policy sales due to regulatory changes and declining interest rates [4][5]. - The regulatory environment is evolving towards stricter oversight and risk prevention, with new policies aimed at enhancing product pricing mechanisms and improving the quality of liabilities [6][7]. - The investment strategies of life insurance companies are diversifying, with a continued focus on fixed-income assets while increasing allocations to equities as market conditions improve [11][30]. - Financial performance is projected to improve significantly in 2024, with rising investment returns offsetting increased claims and reserve requirements due to lower interest rates [31][35]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The new "National Ten Articles" emphasizes strict regulation and risk prevention, aiming for high-quality development in the insurance sector [6][7]. - The introduction of a comprehensive insurance company regulatory rating system will enhance risk assessment and management across the industry [7]. Business Operations - The life insurance sector is experiencing pressure on new policy sales due to regulatory impacts, but renewal business is supporting overall premium growth [13][14]. - The shift in product design towards lower guaranteed rates is becoming a trend to mitigate risks associated with interest rate declines [17][19]. Financial Condition - The life insurance industry reported a premium income of CNY 4.01 trillion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 5.7% compared to the previous year, although the growth rate has slowed [31][32]. - The overall profitability of the industry is expected to improve, driven by favorable market conditions in both the bond and equity markets, leading to a significant increase in investment returns [35][36]. - The solvency levels of life insurance companies remain robust, with a comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio of 190.5% as of the end of 2024, indicating a stable capital position [42][43].