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摩根士丹利:明阳智能-因风力发电机组发货量低于预期及利润受压,2024 年及 2025 年第一季度业绩未达预期
MYSEMYSE(SH:601615)2025-05-06 02:28

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ming Yang Smart Energy is Overweight, with an industry view classified as Attractive [6]. Core Insights - The financial results for 2024 showed a net profit of Rmb346 million, representing an 8.1% year-over-year decline, primarily due to gross profit margin pressure, lower-than-expected wind turbine generator (WTG) shipments, and reduced wind farm sales [2][4]. - The guidance for 2025 includes total shipments expected to reach 20GW, with 16GW onshore and 4GW offshore, alongside a projected recovery in WTG gross profit margin by 5-10 percentage points due to improved average selling prices (ASP) and cost reductions [4][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the gross profit margin (GPM) was 7.5%, down 0.5 percentage points year-over-year, with recurring net profit decreasing by 14.3% to Rmb175 million [2]. - Revenue for 2024 was Rmb27.2 billion, down 3.4% year-over-year, while total WTG shipments were 10.8GW, which was below guidance [2][8]. - The net loss for the fourth quarter of 2024 was Rmb462 million, compared to a net profit of Rmb148 million in the third quarter of 2024 [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates new orders to exceed the 2024 level of 27GW, with offshore projects accounting for 20% and overseas projects for 40% [4][8]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at Rmb2.36, with revenue forecasted to increase to Rmb76.244 billion [6].