4月PMI数据点评：PMI收缩深度，不等于经济环比降幅

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI in April fell to 49.0%, marking the lowest level for the same period in nearly three years and the second lowest in the past decade, indicating a dual weakness in supply and demand[2] - All sub-indices of the PMI showed a decline, with new orders and production indices dropping by 0.78 percentage points and 0.7 percentage points respectively, reflecting widespread contraction across different enterprise sizes[7] Export Resilience - The resilience of export demand is weaker than in 2018, with new orders and new export orders indices recorded at 49.2% and 44.7% respectively, compared to 49.7% and 46.6% in December 2018[7] - The backlog of orders index fell to 43.2%, the lowest since 2013, indicating a significant gap between production and demand[7] Business Operations - Major raw material purchase index and factory price index dropped to 47% and 44.8% respectively, suggesting a risk of accelerated decline in PPI year-on-year growth[7] - The employment index fell to 47.9%, indicating a tendency for enterprises to contract operations[7] Domestic Demand - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 50.4%, with construction and service sectors also showing weak expansion, reflecting insufficient elasticity in domestic demand[7] - The infrastructure business activity index remains strong, but the new orders index continues to decline, reaching a six-year low[7] Policy Outlook - The first round of growth stabilization policies is expected to be implemented in the second quarter, with potential for further policy support as enterprises adapt to tariff changes[2][7]