Tianfeng Securities·2025-04-30 14:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guotai Junan (601211) is "Buy" and it is maintained [7][5]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in performance for Guotai Junan in Q1 2025, with adjusted revenue reaching 10.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.2 billion yuan, up 391.8% [1]. - The report emphasizes the successful integration of Haitong Securities, which has contributed to increased operational efficiency and revenue across various business lines, including brokerage, investment banking, asset management, proprietary trading, and credit services [5][1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Guotai Junan achieved an adjusted revenue of 10.2 billion yuan, a 54.4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 391.8% increase. The non-recurring net profit was 3.3 billion yuan, up 60.7% year-on-year [1]. - The annualized ROE was 25.8%, an increase of 19.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year, while the leverage ratio decreased to 4.28x [1]. Brokerage Business - The brokerage business generated 2.65 billion yuan in revenue in Q1 2025, a 77.0% increase year-on-year, driven by active market trading and a significant rise in transaction volume, with an average daily trading volume of 1.7465 trillion yuan, up 70.9% year-on-year [2]. Investment Banking - The investment banking segment reported revenue of 710 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 10.3% year-on-year increase, marking the first positive growth since the regulatory tightening in August 2023. The IPO and refinancing scales were 2.55 billion yuan and 30 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of 83.0% and -99.1% [2]. Asset Management - The asset management business generated 1.17 billion yuan in revenue in Q1 2025, a 27.2% increase year-on-year. The non-monetary public fund management scale for Guotai Junan Asset Management was 46.9 billion yuan, up 29.3% year-on-year [3]. Proprietary and Credit Trading - The proprietary trading segment achieved revenue of 4.01 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 68.7% increase year-on-year, supported by a significant increase in financial asset scale to 720.1 billion yuan, up 63.6% year-on-year [4]. - The credit business reported revenue of 690 million yuan, a remarkable 97.9% increase year-on-year, attributed to the expanded business scope following the merger with Haitong Securities [4]. Future Outlook - The report projects a positive outlook for Guotai Junan, with revised profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 set at 20.6 billion yuan, 20.8 billion yuan, and 22.5 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a year-on-year growth of 58.4%, 0.6%, and 8.5% [5].