KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-30 14:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company aims to prioritize sales recovery, with expectations for improvement in demand during the peak season of 2025 [1][7] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 10.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.71 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.1% [4][5] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 5.097 billion, 5.780 billion, and 6.458 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.74, 4.24, and 4.73 yuan [4][5] Sales and Pricing - In Q1 2025, beer sales increased by 3.5% year-on-year, while the price per ton decreased by 0.6% [5] - The main brand and sub-brands saw sales growth of 4.1% and 2.8% respectively, with mid-to-high-end beer sales increasing by 5.3% [5] Cost and Profitability - The gross profit margin improved by 1.20 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in raw material costs [6] - The net profit margin increased by 0.64 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better cost management despite pricing pressures [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 33.689 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [9] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 20.1, 17.7, and 15.8 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [9][10]