Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-04-30 14:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658) [1] Core Views - The bank's revenue for Q1 2025 decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with net profit declining by 2.6% [6] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio increased slightly to 0.91%, while the provision coverage ratio fell to 266% [6] - The bank's loan growth outpaced major state-owned banks, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% in Q1 2025 [6] - The net interest margin (NIM) decreased to 1.71%, reflecting ongoing pressure on interest rates [6] - The report anticipates a modest recovery in profitability, projecting net profit growth rates of 1.45%, 4.15%, and 6.72% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Q1 2025 revenue was 893.6 billion yuan, with a net profit of 252.5 billion yuan [4] - The bank's total loans reached 9,356.2 billion yuan, with total deposits at 15,976.5 billion yuan [10] - The forecast for total operating income is 351,263.09 million yuan for 2025, with a projected year-on-year growth rate of 0.71% [5] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline to 9.49% in 2025 [5] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently at 0.57, with a projected dividend yield of 5.1% for 2025 [6]