Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market trading volume exceeded 800,000 tons, with CEA experiencing a significant decline [3]. - It is recommended that companies with a quota gap wait and observe, and purchase when the price drops to an appropriate level [3]. - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quota in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3]. - The new - included industries have no quota gap for the 2024 annual compliance, and the quota gap in the national carbon market has been slightly reduced, but it has limited impact on the supply - demand balance. The expansion plan brings short - term negative sentiment and may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas. The bottom price range in May is 50 - 60 yuan/ton [3]. - The exhaustion node of the mandatory circulation quota is postponed, and the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter. If the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to move backward, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA: CEA21, CEA23, and CEA24 saw significant declines. The listed volume was 106,300 tons, and the bulk volume was 712,300 tons. The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 73.00 yuan/ton, 70.50 yuan/ton, 73.00 yuan/ton, 70.80 yuan/ton, and 70.00 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.00%, - 3.42%, 0.00%, - 2.71%, and - 4.33% [3][4]. - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 0.00 tons, the average trading price was 96.13 yuan/ton (a 1.19% increase), the trading volume was 0.00 tons, the turnover was 250,000 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 1,689,800 tons [3][5]. Strategy - It is recommended that companies with a quota gap wait and observe, and purchase when the price drops to an appropriate level [3]. Core Logic - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quota in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3]. - The new - included industries have no quota gap for the 2024 annual compliance, and the quota gap in the national carbon market has been slightly reduced, but it has limited impact on the supply - demand balance. The expansion plan brings short - term negative sentiment and may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas. The bottom price range in May is 50 - 60 yuan/ton [3]. - The exhaustion node of the mandatory circulation quota is postponed, and the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter. If the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to move backward, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height [3].
全国碳市场行情简报-20250501
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-01 01:42