宏源期货煤焦日报-20250501

Report Highlights 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The second round of coke price increases has started, but the downstream steel mills have strong resistance, and the implementation after the May Day holiday is expected to face difficulties. The coke futures price is expected to maintain a downward trend under the expectation of crude steel production control. - The main - producing area coal mines have normal production and stable supply. The coking coal spot market is weakly stable, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures and Spot Market Data - Coke Futures: For example, J2505 closed at 1574.0, up 5.0 from the previous day; J2509 closed at 1655T, down 9.0 from the previous day. The 2509 - contract coking profit was 250.1 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. - Coke Spot: The ex - factory prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, and Heze remained unchanged. The Rizhao Port coke warehouse receipt price was 1469 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day. - Coking Coal Futures: JM2505 closed at 887.5, up 7.0 from the previous day; JM2509 closed at 932.0, down 15.0 from the previous day. - Coking Coal Spot: The prices of Australian low - volatile and medium - volatile coking coal remained unchanged, and the price of the best - quality warehouse receipt in Shanxi was 946 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. [2][3] Fundamental Data - Coke Fundamentals: The daily average iron - making output of 247 steel enterprises was 244.4, up 4.23 from the previous day, a 1.76% increase. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises was 47.5, up 0.07 from the previous day, a 0.15% increase. The inventory of the full - sample independent coking plants decreased by 2.23%. - Coking Coal Fundamentals: The daily average output of 110 coal - washing plants was 53.4, down 1.3 from the previous day, a 2.57% decrease. The inventory of 523 mines increased by 6.38%. [2] Important News - The State Council has issued policies related to the power market, aiming to achieve full coverage of the power spot market by the end of 2025 and relax market price limits in some areas. - Some manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have received notices from major US retailers to resume shipments, and the new import tariff costs will be borne by US customers. - On April 29, the main port iron ore transactions increased by 30.8% month - on - month, and the construction steel transactions of 237 mainstream traders decreased by 7.3% month - on - month. [4][5] Trading Strategies - Coke: The second - round price increase is facing difficulties in implementation. The steel mills' iron - making output is high, and the coke demand is strongly supported. The coke enterprises' production is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing slightly. The futures price is expected to decline under the crude - steel production control expectation. - Coking Coal: The coal mines' supply is stable, the market trading activity is low, the inventory is increasing, and the short - term coal price is expected to be weakly stable. The coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6]