新世纪期货集运日报-20250501

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core logic for this year lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US may introduce tariff policy changes for countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Europe, adding uncertainty to future shipping trends. Attention should be paid to the price war between MSK and MSC in Q2 and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [3]. - The spot freight rate continues to decline, with short - term external policies being unstable and difficult to operate. It is recommended to focus on medium - to long - term operations for each contract. In the context of tariff issues, the reverse arbitrage structure can be considered, but the window period is short and the volatility is high. Risk - preferring investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Freight Index - On April 28, the Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 908.48 points, down 1.39% from the previous period; the Shanghai Containerized Freight Settlement Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1429.39 points, down 5.2%; the NCFI (European route) was 796.14 points, down 5.19%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1368.41 points, down 10.1%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1235.01 points, up 1.53% [1]. - On April 25, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1347.84 points, down 22.74 points from the previous period; the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1122.40 points, up 1.0%; the SCFI European route price was 1260 USD/TEU, down 4.26%; the CCFI (European route) was 1499.50 points, up 0.9%; the SCFI US West route was 2141 USD/FEU, up 1.81%; the CCFI (US West route) was 823.14 points, up 1.4% [1]. 3.2 Economic Data - Eurozone's April manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 47.5), services PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [1]. - China's February manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the March Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [1]. - The US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2), services PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4), and composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5) [2]. 3.3 Market Conditions - On April 29, the main contract 2506 closed at 1275.6, down 7.83%, with a trading volume of 54,900 lots and an open interest of 37,600 lots, a decrease of 2001 lots from the previous day [3]. - The spot freight rate maintains a downward trend. Under the game between long and short positions, short - selling sentiment slightly prevails, and the market fluctuates at a low level [3]. 3.4 Policy and Geopolitical Events - In April, the US may introduce tariff policy changes for countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Europe, and retaliatory tariffs are added to the negotiation means, increasing uncertainty to future shipping trends [3]. - On April 28, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced sanctions on three ships and their owners supporting the Houthi armed forces in Yemen [5]. 3.5 Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: Due to the unstable external policies in the short term, it is difficult to operate. It is recommended to focus on medium - to long - term operations for each contract [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of tariff issues, the reverse arbitrage structure can be considered, but the window period is short and the volatility is high [4]. - Long - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [4]. 3.6 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is adjusted to 19% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is adjusted to 29% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 100 lots [4]. 3.7 Marine Economy - In Q1, the initial total marine production value was 2.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate [5].