Changjiang Securities·2025-05-01 06:23Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in the total market value of heavy positions in the computer sector, reaching approximately 41.29 billion, up from 32.62 billion in the previous quarter, indicating a strong recovery in heavy allocation [2][4] - The report suggests focusing on sectors expected to see early improvements in fundamentals, including cloud infrastructure, domestic computing power, AI agents, and domestic innovation [7][26] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - As of Q1 2025, the total market value of heavy holdings in the computer sector is approximately 41.29 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 8.68 billion, with a holding ratio of 3.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from Q4 2024 [2][4] - The heavy allocation ratio for the computer sector has shown a steady increase over the past year, reaching 3.1% in Q1 2025, which is at the 42nd percentile since 2010 [2][18] Sector Performance - The report indicates that the computer sector's heavy allocation ratio has reversed its downward trend, with a notable increase in the past quarter [4][18] - The top five sub-sectors by heavy holdings as a percentage of free float market value are domestic innovation (3.6%), industrial software (3.6%), cybersecurity (3.2%), artificial intelligence (3.1%), and IT infrastructure (2.9%) [5][31] Valuation Insights - As of April 21, 2025, the latest PE-TTM for the computer sector is 62.7 times, placing it in the 81st percentile since 2016, compared to the PE-TTM of 11.7 times for the CSI 300, which is in the 44th percentile [6][45] - The concentration of holdings in the computer sector has slightly decreased but remains at a relatively high level, with the CR5/CR10 concentration ratios showing a decline from the previous quarter [6][36] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors likely to see early improvements, such as cloud infrastructure, domestic computing power, AI agents, and domestic innovation, driven by increasing demand and supportive policies [7][26] - The report emphasizes that the AI narrative continues to support high valuations in the sector, with a strong preference for leading companies in specific sub-sectors [6][36]