CNOOC(600938) 长江证券·2025-05-01 07:19Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1068.54 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 4.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 365.63 billion yuan, down 7.9% year-on-year. However, the net oil and gas production increased steadily, and the decline in oil prices was less than the market average, indicating resilience in performance [2][6] - The company continues to focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a significant cost advantage per barrel of oil. The main cost per barrel was 27.03 USD, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, showcasing the company's ability to maintain competitiveness during periods of declining oil prices [12] - Looking ahead, the company anticipates a stable growth in production and a mid-range oil price forecast above 60 USD per barrel, supported by limited production increases in the U.S. and OPEC's production cuts [12] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of approximately 44.7% in 2024, with plans to continue this trend in the coming years [12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net production of 188.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. Domestic production rose by 6.2% to 130.8 million barrels, while overseas production increased by 1.9% to 58.0 million barrels [12] - The average Brent crude oil price for Q1 2025 was 74.98 USD per barrel, down 8.3% year-on-year, while the company's realized oil price was 72.65 USD per barrel, a decline of 7.7%, indicating better performance relative to market trends [12] Cost Management - The company has integrated cost control throughout its exploration, development, and production processes, achieving a significant cost advantage over peers. The reduction in operating expenses and taxes contributed to the overall cost efficiency [12] Future Outlook - The company has set production targets for 2025-2027, aiming for net production of 760-780 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2025, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 5.9%, 2.6%, and 3.8% for the following years [12] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 20-40 billion yuan in the next 12 months, indicating confidence in its valuation and future performance [12] Valuation - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 2.93 yuan, 2.99 yuan, and 3.12 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.58X, 8.40X, and 8.04X, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [12]