外汇期货热点报告：美国一季度GDP增速转负，关税加大经济波动

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The US GDP growth rate turned negative in Q1 2025, with the annualized quarterly-on-quarter initial value at -0.3%, lower than the expected 0.3% and a significant drop from the previous quarter's 2.4%. Tariffs increased economic volatility, and the surge in imports due to enterprises stockpiling ahead of time dragged down the economic growth rate. As tariffs are implemented, enterprises' investment willingness weakens, and they need to digest inventory. Meanwhile, the consumption momentum of the household sector has significantly weakened, putting further downward pressure on the economy. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has slightly increased, with the probability of a rate cut in June expected to rise to 64.2% [3][4] - In the short term, the market is trading around the progress of tariff negotiations and is insensitive to fundamental data. In the long term, the de - globalization under tariffs is hard to reverse, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy continues to accumulate. Without further progress in tax cuts and interest rate cuts, the market's risk appetite is difficult to improve significantly [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US Q1 GDP Growth Rate Turns Negative, Tariffs Increase Economic Volatility - GDP Data: The annualized quarterly - on - quarter initial value of US Q1 GDP was -0.3%, lower than the expected 0.3% and a significant drop from the previous quarter's 2.4%. Net exports dragged down the economic growth rate by 4.83%, with the import sub - item contributing -5.03%. Personal consumption expenditure grew at 1.8%, government expenditure at -1.4%, private investment at 21.9%, and imports at 41.3%. The core PCE price index rebounded from 2.6% to 3.5%, higher than expected [3][8] - Contribution to GDP Growth: Consumption, fixed investment, inventory, net exports, and government expenditure contributed 1.21%, 1.34%, 2.25%, -4.83%, and -0.25% respectively to the -0.3% GDP growth [3][16] - Consumption: Service consumption remained resilient, while commodity consumption declined significantly. The growth rate of commodity consumption dropped from 6.2% in Q1 to 0.5%, with durable and non - durable goods growing at -3.4% and 2.7% respectively. Service consumption was only weak in the accommodation and food sub - item [23] - Investment: Private investment increased by 21.9% quarter - on - quarter annualized, the highest since 2022. Equipment investment grew by 22.5%, mainly due to enterprises advancing equipment investment to avoid future tariff pressure and government regulations on the technology industry. Inventory also increased significantly due to pre - tariff stockpiling. However, long - term capital expenditure is showing signs of weakness [24] - Government Expenditure: The growth rate of government expenditure dropped to -1.4% in Q1, and the government's role in boosting the economy weakened due to debt ceiling, fiscal budget constraints, and the intervention of Trump's new government efficiency department [26] - Inflation: Inflation continued to rise in Q1. The GDP deflator rose to 3.7%, the PCE price index rebounded from 2.4% to 3.6%, and the core PCE rebounded from 2.6% to 3.5%. The process of inflation decline may be slower under tariff shocks [26] 2. Investment Advice - In the short term, the market is trading around the progress of tariff negotiations. After the news that the US wants to negotiate tariffs with China, the market's risk appetite has recovered. Gold has a correction space due to crowded long - positions, the US stock market is expected to be weak and oscillating after reaching the resistance level, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields will oscillate. In the long term, the risk of stagflation in the US economy continues to accumulate, and the market's risk appetite is difficult to improve significantly [5][30]