Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [5][12]. Core Viewpoints - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to decline slightly by 3.57% year-on-year to 16.91 billion yuan, primarily due to a decrease in overseas income [1][2]. - The company is expected to enter a recovery growth phase in 2025, with a forecasted revenue increase of 6.60% to 18.03 billion yuan [4][3]. - The global LED lighting market is anticipated to recover in 2025, driven by economic recovery and increasing demand for high-quality and healthy lighting solutions, with a projected market size of 56.63 billion USD [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 374 million yuan, down 13.06% from the previous year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 38.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.82% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.43 billion yuan, down 21.30% [1][2]. - The company's main brand, Langdawans, saw a revenue decline of 9.04% in 2024, while the domestic brand, Mulinsen, experienced slight growth [2]. Market Outlook - The traditional lighting market is expected to remain the dominant force in global lighting market growth, despite the rise of smart lighting [3]. - The report highlights the ongoing demand for upgrading traditional lighting in various sectors, including buildings and public facilities, which will sustain strong growth in this segment [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 681 million yuan (down 25.41%) and 1.04 billion yuan (down 9.75%), respectively [3][4]. - The report projects a net profit of 1.15 billion yuan for 2027, indicating a positive long-term growth trajectory for the company [3][4].
木林森(002745):跟踪报告之四:海外收入略降导致公司24年收入略降,25年将进入恢复性增长阶段