5月，应对“特朗普”不确定A股动静框架之静态指标

Core Insights - The report highlights that the current market sentiment is cooling down, with trading activity indicators showing a decline, while asset linkage indicators suggest potential upward space in the market [2][4][18]. Group 1: Asset Linkage Indicators - The stock-bond relative yield is at a historical high, with the April 2025 figures at 1.59% and 0.96% for the two calculation methods, indicating a high comparative value of stocks over bonds [4][11]. - The equity risk premium (ERP) is currently at 3.78%, above one standard deviation, suggesting a favorable risk-return profile for equities [4][17]. - The PE ratio for the Wind All A index is 18.5, with most broad indices below the 50th percentile historically, indicating relatively low valuations [4][18]. Group 2: Market Configuration Indicators - The valuation dispersion remains high, with the coefficient of variation at 0.862, indicating significant differences in stock valuations [4][20]. - The turnover rate has decreased to 1.51%, reflecting a decline in market activity, with historical data showing that lower turnover rates are associated with bearish market conditions [4][25]. - The proportion of stocks above the 50-week moving average has dropped to 64%, indicating a slight retreat in bullish sentiment among individual stocks [4][34]. Group 3: Market Trading/Sentiment Indicators - The maximum daily trading volume as a percentage of historical highs is at 50%, showing a cooling in market trading enthusiasm compared to previous peaks [4][28]. - The MACD for industries is at a historically high level, with 90% of industries showing positive trends, suggesting ongoing opportunities in various sectors [4][30]. - The shareholder buyback scale has significantly increased to 13.97 billion, indicating a strong commitment from companies to support their stock prices [4][37]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - The net reduction in industrial capital was 361 million in April 2025, a significant decrease from previous months, indicating a more cautious approach from major shareholders [4][41]. - The three major funding entities' indicator is at 0.07, reflecting a slight decline, with positive contributions from international intermediaries and financing balances [4][43].