AIA(01299) 光大证券·2025-05-01 13:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299.HK) [1] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, AIA Group achieved a new business value of USD 1.5 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13% (fixed exchange rate) and 12.8% (actual exchange rate) [5][11] - The new business value margin reached 57.5%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product structure optimization [5][11] - Annualized new premiums amounted to USD 2.62 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [5][11] - Total weighted premium income was USD 12.68 billion, up 13.0% year-on-year [5][11] Market Performance - In the mainland China market, new business value grew by 8% year-on-year, with a new business value margin exceeding 50% [6] - The Hong Kong market saw a 16% year-on-year increase in new business value, benefiting from balanced growth in local and MCV businesses [6] - Southeast Asia markets, particularly Thailand and Singapore, experienced rapid growth in new business value, driven by regulatory changes and strategic partnerships [7] Share Buyback Plan - AIA Group announced a new USD 1.6 billion share buyback plan, expected to be completed within three months [8] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts AIA Group's net profit for 2025-2027 to be USD 8.13 billion, USD 8.84 billion, and USD 9.75 billion respectively [11][12] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are 9.9, 9.1, and 8.2 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [12]