农业银行：规模稳步扩张，非息表现亮眼-20250502

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Agricultural Bank is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [7] Core Views - Agricultural Bank reported a revenue of approximately 186.7 billion yuan for Q1 2025, showing a year-over-year increase of 0.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 71.9 billion yuan, up 2.20% year-over-year. The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.28% with a provision coverage ratio of 298% [1][2] - The bank's net interest income was 140.6 billion yuan, down 2.74% year-over-year, accounting for 75.3% of total revenue. Non-interest income reached 46.1 billion yuan, marking a significant growth of 24.7% year-over-year, driven by a 95.77% increase in investment net income [2][3] - The bank's net interest margin recorded at 1.34%, reflecting a decline of 8 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 10 basis points year-over-year due to the impact of loan repricing following the reduction in LPR [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the total interest-earning assets amounted to 43.92 trillion yuan, a year-over-year growth of 6.3%. Loan and financial investment growth rates were 10.0% and 12.7% respectively [3] - The bank's interest-bearing liabilities reached 40.96 trillion yuan, increasing by 8.0% year-over-year, with deposits growing by 3.0% [3] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was reported at 11.23%, down 19 basis points, attributed to high credit growth leading to risk-weighted asset expansion [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to grow by 2.25%, 4.12%, and 5.08% respectively, with corresponding book values per share (BPS) of 7.95, 8.50, and 8.99 yuan [5] - The projected revenue for 2025 is approximately 719.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.21% [6]