CNOOC(600938) 东吴证券·2025-05-02 03:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [1][6] Core Views - CNOOC's oil and gas production continues to grow steadily, contributing to high-quality development [1] - The company achieved a total revenue of RMB 106.9 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was RMB 36.6 billion, down 8% year-on-year but up 72% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The report highlights the successful launch of projects leading to increased oil and gas production, with a net production of 189 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q1 2025, a 5% increase year-on-year [6] - CNOOC's capital expenditure for Q1 2025 was RMB 27.71 billion, a decrease of 4.5% year-on-year, with a total budget of RMB 125-135 billion for the year [6] - The report emphasizes the company's strong cost control, with a barrel of oil cost of USD 27.03, down 2% year-on-year [6] - CNOOC is focused on shareholder returns, with an expected dividend payout of approximately RMB 62.3 billion for 2025, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.2% for A shares and 8.4% for H shares before tax [6] - The report projects net profits of RMB 138.4 billion, RMB 141.8 billion, and RMB 146.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios for A shares of 8.6, 8.4, and 8.1 [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is RMB 416.609 billion, with a slight decline expected in 2025E to RMB 409.877 billion [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 138.391 billion in 2025E, showing a marginal increase from 2024A [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be RMB 2.91 in 2025E, with a steady increase projected through 2027 [1] - The report indicates a decrease in capital expenditures and a focus on maintaining profitability through effective cost management [6][7]