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百胜中国:Q1业绩符合预期,红利属性突出-20250502
09987YUM CHINA(09987) 国金证券·2025-05-02 06:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance met expectations with revenue of 2.981billion,aslightincreaseof0.82.981 billion, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, and a core operating profit of 405 million, which adjusted for currency effects, rose by 8% [2][5]. - Profitability continues to improve, with the overall restaurant profit margin at 18.6%, up by 1.0 percentage points, driven by higher gross margins and a decrease in the proportion of rental and operational costs [3]. - The company is expanding its new store formats, with KFC's same-store sales decline narrowing and a significant increase in order volume, while Pizza Hut is seeing a notable rise in single-store sales [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 system sales for KFC increased by 3%, with same-store sales growth stabilizing and a 4% increase in order volume. The restaurant profit margin for KFC was 19.8%, benefiting from lower raw material costs and operational efficiencies [3]. - Pizza Hut's system sales also rose by 3%, with a 17% increase in order volume, although average transaction value decreased. The restaurant profit margin improved to 14.4% [4]. - The company forecasts a steady improvement in same-store sales growth driven by new product marketing and operational efficiency, with projected net profits of 940million,940 million, 1.001 billion, and 1.051billionfor2025E,2026E,and2027Erespectively[5][10].ValuationMetricsThereportprojectsaPEratioof17.2,16.2,and15.4for2025E,2026E,and2027Erespectively,indicatingastrongvaluationoutlook[5][10].Thecompanyisexpectedtoreturnatotalof1.051 billion for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [5][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects a PE ratio of 17.2, 16.2, and 15.4 for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, indicating a strong valuation outlook [5][10]. - The company is expected to return a total of 3 billion to shareholders over 2025E and 2026E, highlighting its strong dividend attributes [5].