Changjiang Securities·2025-05-02 09:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 40.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.75 billion yuan, down 45.6% year-on-year. The company is committed to its transition to new energy, making adjustments across product, channel, and supply chain dimensions, which is expected to drive improvements in sales and performance [2][4]. - The company’s four strategic expansion initiatives are anticipated to open up long-term growth opportunities for sales, while its shift towards smart technology is expected to enhance profitability across the entire industry chain [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company sold 257,000 vehicles, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year and 32.3% quarter-on-quarter. New energy vehicle sales reached 63,000 units, up 5.7% year-on-year but down 43.3% quarter-on-quarter. The revenue per vehicle was 156,000 yuan, remaining flat year-on-year [7]. - The gross margin for Q1 was 17.8%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 3.7%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating its global expansion under the "ONE GWM" strategy, covering over 170 countries and regions, with more than 1,400 overseas sales channels. It has established production bases in Thailand and Brazil, and KD factories in Ecuador and Pakistan, which are expected to drive future sales growth [7]. - The company is focusing on the new energy sector, particularly in the plug-in hybrid segment, with multiple new models across its brands expected to contribute significantly to future growth [7]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to distribute cash dividends of 3.85 billion yuan in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 30.4%. The estimated net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 14.71 billion, 17.86 billion, and 21.95 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding A-share P/E ratios of 13.5X, 11.1X, and 9.0X [7].