PDH(600048)2025-05-02 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Poly Developments [1][10] Core Views - The company's revenue performance is under short-term pressure, but its leading position in the industry remains solid [1][10] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 311.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.00 billion yuan, down 58.56% year-on-year [4][5] - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 54.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.09%, with a net profit of 1.95 billion yuan, down 12.27% year-on-year, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the full year of 2024 [4][5] Revenue and Profitability - The company's sales amount for 2024 was 323.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%, with a sales area of 17.97 million square meters, down 24.7% [6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 2 percentage points to 14% [5][10] - The company has maintained its sales amount as the industry leader for two consecutive years [6] Market Position and Strategy - The company focuses on core cities, with a sales market share in 38 core cities increasing by 2 percentage points to 90% in 2024 [6][7] - The company expanded its land acquisition in 2024 with a total land price of 68.3 billion yuan, ranking second in the industry, with 99% of the investment located in 38 core cities [7] Debt and Financing - As of the end of 2024, the company's interest-bearing debt was reduced by 5.4 billion yuan to 348.8 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio decreasing by 2.2 percentage points to 74.3% [9] - The financing cost continued to decline, with the comprehensive cost of newly added interest-bearing debt down 22 basis points to 2.92% [9][10] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 5.21 billion yuan, 5.40 billion yuan, and 6.07 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10] - Corresponding PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 19.25X, 18.54X, and 16.51X [10]