Ping An Securities·2025-05-02 08:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658.SH), expecting the stock to outperform the market by over 20% within the next six months [13]. Core Views - The report highlights enhanced cost control and a significant improvement in non-interest income, with a notable recovery in fee-based income [5][7]. - The bank's first-quarter net profit decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, influenced by increased provisioning, while pre-provision profit grew by 6.2% [5][4]. - The bank's total assets reached 17.7 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, with loans and deposits increasing by 9.8% and 9.2%, respectively [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Postal Savings Bank reported operating income of 894 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 252 billion yuan, down 2.6% [4]. - The annualized return on equity (ROE) for Q1 2025 was 11.33% [4]. Income and Expenses - The bank's net interest income fell by 3.8% year-on-year, while non-interest income rose by 14.8%, indicating a strong recovery in fee-based income [5][8]. - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 56.65% in Q1 2025, down from previous periods, reflecting better cost management [8]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio slightly increased to 0.91% as of Q1 2025, with a coverage ratio of 266%, indicating stable risk mitigation capabilities [7][8]. - The report notes that the bank's asset quality remains strong, with a focus on retail banking and a solid customer base in rural and central-western regions [7]. Future Projections - The report projects EPS for 2025-2027 to be 0.89, 0.93, and 0.97 yuan, respectively, with corresponding profit growth rates of 2.6%, 3.6%, and 4.3% [7][10]. - The bank's total assets are expected to grow steadily, with loan growth rates projected at 9.0% annually [11].