WANTAI BIOLOGICAL(603392) Guotou Securities·2025-05-02 13:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a target price of 68.33 CNY over the next six months [3][4]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 was under pressure, with a revenue of 401 million CNY, a year-on-year decline of 46.76%, and a net loss of 53 million CNY. This decline is attributed to the vaccine segment facing market adjustments, government procurement, and the expansion of the nine-valent HPV vaccine age group, leading to lower-than-expected sales [1]. - The nine-valent HPV vaccine is in the listing application stage, with expectations for its contribution to future revenue. The clinical trials are progressing well, and commercial production conditions are ready. The company anticipates that the launch of this vaccine will help restore its operational performance [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.17 billion CNY, 11.4 billion CNY in 2026, and 28.63 billion CNY in 2027. Net profits are expected to be 350 million CNY, 2.13 billion CNY, and 6.01 billion CNY for the same years respectively [3][10]. - The company’s revenue growth rate is forecasted to be -50.7% in 2023, -59.3% in 2024, followed by a recovery to 41.0% in 2025, 259.9% in 2026, and 151.3% in 2027 [11]. Market Potential - The nine-valent HPV vaccine is expected to reach a peak sales value of 22.8 billion CNY, assuming a cumulative vaccination penetration rate of over 50% among eligible women. The estimated valuation of the company based on this product is 86.5 billion CNY, considering a 4x price-to-sales ratio and a 95% success rate for the product launch [3][10]. Stock Performance - As of April 30, 2025, the stock price was 65.41 CNY, with a 12-month price range of 63.3 to 83.8 CNY. The total market capitalization is approximately 82.75 billion CNY [4][5].