GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-05-03 01:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][7]. Core Views - Xiaomi is advancing its high-end and international strategies, with smartphone shipments reaching 41.8 million units globally in Q1 2025, a 3% year-on-year increase, capturing a 14% global market share [1]. - In the domestic market, Xiaomi regained the top position with a 19% market share, achieving a 40% year-on-year growth in shipments [1]. - The IoT business is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by high-end products and international expansion, with plans to establish 10,000 Xiaomi Home stores overseas by 2029 [1]. - The automotive segment shows promising growth, with the SU7 Ultra model receiving over 10,000 orders within three days of its launch [2]. - Xiaomi has also launched its first open-source inference model, "Xiaomi MiMo," which outperformed competitors in public tests, indicating a strong position in AI hardware technology [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at CNY 488.6 billion, CNY 643.3 billion, and CNY 792.4 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 32%, and 23% respectively [3][5]. - Adjusted net profit for the consumer electronics segment is forecasted to be CNY 39 billion, CNY 49.6 billion, and CNY 59.1 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 17%, 27%, and 19% [3][5]. - The automotive segment is expected to contribute adjusted net profits of CNY 15 billion, CNY 100 billion, and CNY 173 billion from 2025 to 2027 [3]. - The report sets a target price of HKD 60 for Xiaomi Group based on a P/E ratio of 20x for 2026 estimates [3].