Huafu Securities·2025-05-03 12:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [29]. Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit growth rates have declined compared to 2024, with Q1 2025 showing revenue and net profit growth rates of -3.1% and -2.1%, respectively [3][8]. - The net interest income has turned positive with a growth rate of 1.9% in Q1 2025, benefiting from a narrowing decline in net interest margin [4]. - Wealth management fees have seen a double-digit growth of 10.5%, significantly narrowing the decline in total commission income [6]. - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94% as of Q1 2025, showing slight improvement [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue and net profit growth rates are -3.1% and -2.1%, respectively, down 2.6 percentage points and 3.3 percentage points from 2024 [3]. - Non-interest income decreased by 22.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, primarily due to rising interest rates affecting bond and fund investments [3]. Interest Income - Net interest income grew by 1.9% in Q1 2025, reversing the previous negative trend, attributed to a smaller decline in net interest margin, which was 1.91% [4]. - The yield on assets decreased by 44 basis points to 3.21%, while the cost of liabilities fell by 36 basis points to 1.39% [4]. Loan Growth - Total loans decreased by approximately 469 billion yuan year-on-year in Q1 2025, with retail loans down by about 479 billion yuan [5]. - The decline in retail loans reflects weak consumer credit demand, although mortgage loans increased by 288 billion yuan [5]. Wealth Management - Commission income from wealth management increased by 10.5%, contributing to a significant reduction in the overall decline of commission income, which was -2.5% [6]. Asset Quality - As of Q1 2025, the non-performing loan ratio improved to 0.94%, while the focus rate increased to 1.36% [7]. - The new non-performing loans generated in Q1 2025 amounted to 166.52 billion yuan, with retail loans showing an increase in non-performing loans [7]. Profit Forecast - Revenue growth is projected at 0.6%, 2.8%, and 5.3% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, while net profit growth is expected at 1.4%, 4.1%, and 5.2% [8].