2025年4月美国非农数据点评：非农暂时稳定，缓和市场衰退担忧

Employment Data Summary - In April 2025, the U.S. added 177,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 130,000 but lower than the revised previous value of 185,000[1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, matching both the forecast and the previous month's figure[1] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% year-on-year, in line with the previous value but slightly below the expected 3.9%[1] Sector Performance - The transportation and warehousing sector saw a significant rebound, adding 29,000 jobs in April, up from just 3,000 in March, partially offsetting job losses in other sectors[3] - Retail and leisure/hospitality sectors experienced job declines, with retail jobs decreasing by 2,000 and leisure/hospitality jobs increasing by only 24,000, both significantly lower than previous values[3][17] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.6%, up from 62.5% in the previous month, indicating increased engagement from older age groups[4] - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 82,000, while the employed population rose by 436,000, contributing to the stable unemployment rate[4][32] Economic Outlook - Despite the economic pressures, the better-than-expected non-farm data has alleviated some recession fears, suggesting the Federal Reserve may adopt a more patient approach[5] - Following the non-farm data release, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.33%, with market expectations for a potential rate cut in July 2025 at 55.2% probability[5][45] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy, escalating international trade tensions, and geopolitical developments that could impact economic stability[6]