中国铁建（601186）：Q1盈利继续承压，现金流有所改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 earnings continue to be under pressure, with total revenue of 256.76 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.15 billion yuan, down 14.5% year-on-year [8] - Despite the revenue decline, cash flow has improved, with a net cash flow from operating activities of -38.95 billion yuan, which is a reduction in outflow by 7.65 billion yuan year-on-year [8] - New contract signings decreased by 10.5% year-on-year to 492.8 billion yuan, but the company saw significant growth in green and environmental contracts, which increased by 77.1% year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to benefit from increased fiscal policy support and improved financing conditions, which will gradually manifest in investment and physical volume [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 total revenue was 256.76 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 7.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.15 billion yuan, down 14.5% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 2.01%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [8] Cash Flow and Debt - Operating cash flow improved, with a net cash flow of -38.95 billion yuan, a reduction in outflow by 7.65 billion yuan year-on-year [8] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company's interest-bearing debt was 541.1 billion yuan, an increase of 141.6 billion yuan year-on-year, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 77.6%, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [8] Order Book and Market Outlook - New contracts signed in Q1 2025 totaled 492.8 billion yuan, down 10.5% year-on-year, with significant growth in green and environmental contracts [8] - The company’s backlog of uncompleted contracts was 7.8613 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.5% year-on-year, indicating strong order visibility [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 21.9 billion yuan in 2025, 22.4 billion yuan in 2026, and 22.9 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 4.8, 4.7, and 4.6 times [8]