Dongxing Securities·2025-05-03 14:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Conch Cement [2][11]. Core Views - The cement industry is experiencing continued weakness, but Conch Cement is leveraging both organic growth and overseas expansion to create new opportunities [5][11]. - In 2024, Conch Cement's revenue is projected to be CNY 91.03 billion, a year-on-year decline of 35.44%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 7.70 billion, down 26.21% [3][12]. - The company has seen a recovery in profit margins due to price increases since the third quarter of 2024, despite a decline in sales volume [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Conch Cement's self-produced cement sales volume was 268 million tons, a decrease of 5.96% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling price of cement in 2024 was CNY 214.17 per ton, down 21.68% year-on-year [3]. - The company's comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 22.88%, an increase of 5.13 percentage points year-on-year, which helped offset the impact of declining sales volume [4]. Market Position - Conch Cement has maintained a market share increase despite a 9.50% decline in national cement production in 2024, showcasing its scale cost advantages [4]. - The company is actively pursuing regional capacity consolidation and overseas expansion, with new production lines in Uzbekistan and Cambodia [5]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for Conch Cement from 2025 to 2027 are CNY 9.36 billion, CNY 10.40 billion, and CNY 11.64 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 1.77, CNY 1.96, and CNY 2.20 [5][12].