同庆楼：3月受益宴会改善同店转正，关注利润弹性释放-20250504

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.52 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 100.08 million yuan, down 67.1% year-on-year [1] - The decline in net profit is attributed to several factors, including the absence of a one-time compensation income from store demolition in Wuxi amounting to 50.48 million yuan, losses from new stores, increased financial expenses, and a significant drop in wedding banquet demand [1][2] - The company anticipates a recovery in performance starting from March 2025, with a projected revenue of 6.9 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 660 million yuan, down 8.15% year-on-year, and a net profit of 17 million yuan, down 83.5% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company expects a revenue of 690 million yuan, with a net profit of 52 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.4% [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.2 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 31.05% [2] Business Segments - The restaurant and accommodation services segment is projected to generate 2.2 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, a growth of 12.7% [3] - The food business is expected to achieve a revenue of 310 million yuan, with a significant growth of 85.5%, driven by strong sales of specialty products [3] - The overall gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 19.2%, down 7.5 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit margin at 4.0%, down 8.7 percentage points [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to open 3-5 new restaurants and upgrade 20 existing ones in 2025, along with opening 3-4 new hotels [4] - The food segment will focus on the East China market, aiming to add 100-150 franchise stores for its specialty products [4] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected net profits of 210 million yuan, 330 million yuan, and 440 million yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 26, 17, and 13 [4][6]