Minsheng Securities·2025-05-04 06:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the computer industry, particularly highlighting the potential in AI-related companies [7]. Core Insights - The computer industry is experiencing revenue pressure, but a profit turning point has been observed. The overall revenue growth rate for the computer sector is expected to decline in 2024, with a notable recovery in profits in the first quarter of 2025 [5][11]. - In 2024, the computer sector is projected to achieve total operating revenue of CNY 12,614.80 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.65%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be CNY 294.24 billion, down 9.39% year-on-year [11][14]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows signs of recovery, with operating revenue reaching CNY 2,862.17 billion, an increase of 2.56% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 6.05% to CNY 58.79 billion [11][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of April 28 to May 2, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.43%, while the computer sector (CITIC) rose by 2.66%. The top five gainers included companies like Chuangyi Information and Lingzhi Software, while the biggest losers included Dongfangtong and Quanzhi Technology [3][59]. Industry News - The report highlights significant developments in the AI sector, with companies like Yaxin Security and Cloud Sky Flying-U showing impressive revenue growth rates exceeding 40% in 2024, driven by AI-related business [14][16]. - The software industry reported a total profit of CNY 3,726 billion in the first quarter, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [55]. Company Dynamics - Notable company announcements include Keda Guokong's termination of share reduction plans and adjustments in stock repurchase prices by Zhongcheng Technology, indicating stable governance and compliance with regulations [4][56][57]. Financial Performance Overview - The computer sector's financial performance shows a median revenue growth rate of -1.65% for 2024, compared to a median growth rate of 1.51% for all A-shares. The median net profit growth rate for the computer sector is -9.39%, while the overall A-share market shows a median of -2.44% [17][18]. - The report indicates that the computer sector's gross profit margin is projected to be 37.12% in 2024, a decrease of 1.72 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is expected to be -16.58% [36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued focus on AI-related sectors, as they are expected to outperform in the challenging macroeconomic environment of 2024, with signs of recovery in profits in early 2025 [5][51].