白酒行业行业研究：磨底期报表兑现仍较优，稳底盘待动销厚积薄发

Investment Rating - The report strongly recommends bottom warehouse allocation for stable alpha liquor companies, including high-end brands such as Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as Shanxi Fenjiu and regional leaders benefiting from resilient consumer demand and rural consumption upgrades [2][12]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector's 2024 annual report and 2025 Q1 report show good performance, with most companies meeting market expectations. In the current environment of industry pressure, companies need to focus on demand and market share while stabilizing their foundations for future growth [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the mid-term narrative of domestic demand recovery, which remains unchanged, and external fluctuations are expected to reinforce expectations for increased domestic policy support [1][11]. Revenue Summary - The liquor sector achieved a total revenue of 438.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 152.5 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year. The revenue from Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye accounted for 57.4% of the sector's total revenue, an increase of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][13]. - The report notes that the revenue growth is concentrated among leading companies, with non-leading companies continuing to face challenges, although the rate of decline has narrowed in Q1 2025 [3][13]. Profit Summary - The overall profit margin is under pressure, with the sector's total net profit for 2024 reaching 166.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. In Q1 2025, net profit was 63.4 billion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year. However, excluding Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, the net profit for Q1 2025 declined by 9.2% year-on-year [3][13]. - The report highlights that the overall gross profit margin for the sector was 71.4% in 2024, slightly up from the previous year, while it remained stable at 73.2% in Q1 2025 [3][13]. Institutional Holdings - As of the end of Q1 2025, the market value of fund holdings in the liquor sector accounted for 3.71% of the total market value of fund equity investments, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points. Active equity funds showed a slight increase in holdings, while index funds decreased [4][12]. - The report indicates that the active equity funds have an overweight ratio of 3.08% in the liquor sector, reflecting a growing interest in leading companies such as Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [4][12].