海外策略周报：全球多数市场超跌反弹进入中段偏后-20250504

Global Market Overview - The report indicates that most global markets are experiencing a rebound from oversold conditions, but this rebound is expected to reach a plateau as negative factors persist, leading to a potential space for future corrections [1][3] - The US stock market continues its rebound, with the TAMAMA Technology Index's P/E ratio at 29.8, approaching a high range, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio has risen to 39.2, nearing 40 [1][11] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio has increased to 35.26, exceeding historical averages, suggesting that the US market may face further corrections in the medium term [1][11] US Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw increases of 2.92%, 3.42%, and 3% respectively over the past week [3][11] - The report highlights that the industrial sector within the S&P 500 had a significant increase of 4.32%, while the energy sector experienced a decline of 0.65% [11] European Market Performance - Major European indices such as the DAX, CAC40, and FTSE 100 have shown substantial rebounds, with the DAX rising by 3.8% [2][8] - The report anticipates that the short-term rebound in European markets will diminish, with potential for increased volatility [1][8] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and related indices have also rebounded, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 2.38% and the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 5.24% [3][24] - The report suggests caution in pursuing high valuations in Hong Kong stocks, recommending a focus on sectors with lower valuations and better fundamentals [1][39] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are experiencing mixed performance, with indices like the Istanbul ISE100 showing a significant decline of 3.75% [10] - The report notes that emerging markets may continue to face volatility due to economic fundamentals and policy uncertainties [1][10] Key Economic Data - Japan's unemployment rate for March 2025 was reported at 2.5%, slightly higher than the previous value of 2.4% [40] - The Eurozone's unemployment rate remained stable at 6.2%, while the CPI growth rate for April 2025 was reported at 2.2% [40][42]