Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, 京能清洁能源 (579 HK), with a target price of HKD 3.03, indicating a potential upside of 26.8% from the current price of HKD 2.39 [1][8][16]. Core Insights - The company's first-quarter performance was impacted by one-time items, resulting in a slight year-on-year decline in profit of 2.7% to RMB 1.293 billion. However, the gross profit increased by 11%, driven by new wind and solar installations [2][8]. - A new dividend policy was announced, significantly exceeding market expectations, with payout ratios for 2025-2027 set at 42%, 44%, and 46% of distributable profits, respectively. This is an increase from the previous guidance of 33%, 30%, and 27% [8]. - The company is expected to enhance its market capitalization and liquidity by entering the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which could attract more institutional investors and serve as a catalyst for short-term valuation improvement [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 20,446 million in 2023, RMB 20,562 million in 2024, RMB 21,883 million in 2025, RMB 23,666 million in 2026, and RMB 25,408 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [7][11]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow from RMB 3,150 million in 2023 to RMB 4,550 million in 2027, with corresponding earnings per share increasing from RMB 0.37 to RMB 0.54 [7][18]. - The company’s dividend per share is expected to rise from RMB 0.14 in 2023 to RMB 0.24 in 2027, with dividend yields projected at 7.8% and 10.6% for 2025 and 2027, respectively [7][8]. Operational Data - The total installed capacity is projected to increase from 14,500 MW in 2023 to 27,486 MW by 2027, with wind and solar power contributing significantly to this growth [10][11]. - The company aims to achieve a wind and solar power share of 81.2% in its total capacity by 2027, indicating a strategic focus on renewable energy sources [10].
京能清洁能源：1季度受一次性项目影响，但新分红政策应对估值提升起积极作用-20250505