Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 8.36, indicating a potential upside of 20.6% from the current price of HKD 6.93 [1][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the decline in gross profit margin is stabilizing, and the proportion of revenue from third-party projects is increasing. The sustainable third-party revenue ratio is expected to reach 98.9% in 2024, which is one of the highest in the industry [6][10]. - The company is projected to maintain a gross profit margin of approximately 18% from 2025 to 2027, with a revenue growth forecast of 3.2% in 2024, reaching RMB 43.993 billion [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong cash position, with approximately RMB 16.8 billion in net cash, equivalent to about HKD 5.04 per share, which could enhance its ability to pursue acquisitions or increase dividends when market conditions improve [6][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 42,612 million in 2023, RMB 43,993 million in 2024, and RMB 47,344 million in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.0%, 3.2%, and 7.6% respectively [5][10]. - The core earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 1.17 in 2023, declining to RMB 0.90 in 2024, and then gradually recovering to RMB 1.01 by 2027 [5][10]. - The company’s net profit is projected to increase from RMB 292 million in 2023 to RMB 3,248 million by 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [10][11]. Market Position - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 22.43 billion and has shown a year-to-date price change of 25.54% [3][10]. - The report indicates that the company is diversifying its revenue streams, reducing reliance on related parties, which helps mitigate the impact of declining gross margins [6][10].
碧桂园服务：毛利率下滑渐缓，第三方收入占比进一步上升-20250505