PSBC(601658) 长江证券·2025-05-05 02:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The report highlights a slight decline in revenue growth of -0.1% and a net profit decrease of -2.6% for Q1 2025, with interest income down by 3.8%. However, non-interest income saw a significant increase of 14.8%, driven by an 8.8% growth in fee income and a 21.7% rise in other non-interest income [2][10]. - The bank has effectively reduced management expenses, leading to a 6.5% increase in Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP). The bank's self-operated deposits increased by over 100 billion year-on-year, contributing to lower funding costs [2][10]. - The report projects a future dividend yield of 4.3% for A shares and 4.9% for H shares, considering potential dilution from a private placement [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue growth was -0.1%, with net profit down 2.6% and interest income down 3.8%. Non-interest income growth was robust at 14.8%, with fee income up 8.8% and other non-interest income up 21.7% [2][10]. - The bank's total assets grew by 3.5% compared to the beginning of the year, with loans increasing by 5.0%. Corporate loans rose by 9.9%, while retail loans grew by 1.4% [10]. Cost Management - The bank has initiated proactive adjustments to agency fees, resulting in a 4.6% decrease in business management expenses year-on-year, which has positively impacted PPOP growth [10]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio increased slightly to 0.91%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased to 266%. The report indicates that the increase in NPLs is primarily due to retail sector risks [6][10]. Dividend and Valuation - The report estimates a dividend yield of 4.3% for A shares and 4.9% for H shares, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.61x for A shares and 0.52x for H shares for 2025 [10][26].